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Lake Victoria,

AfricaTalk of war between Kenya and Uganda has recently caused the world to take notice. The dispute is over a tiny, fishing-rich island in Lake Victoria. The one-acre island would hardly be worth fighting over were it not for the effects of climate change, which have pitted already discordant ethnic groups and countries against one another. Environmental damage has worsened a continent-wide water-supply problem, leading to droughts and famine.

Central Asia

The already volatile states of central Asia will experience above-average warming due to climate change. As mountain glaciers continue to melt, water-supply problems are likely to combine with existing conflicts over energy resources and social issues to create the possibility of widespread violence. Many of these formerly Soviet states could collapse, especially with the heightened tensions brought about by war in Afghanistan and the increasingly precocious aspirations of Iran

Sahel Region,

AfricaIn Sudan, climate change has already led to increased competition over natural resources, one of the many causes of the crisis in Darfur. These resources are expected to become even scarcer, which would likely cause crises like Darfur to be replicated around the country, with varying degrees of seriousness. The entire Sahel region of Africa is one vast "marginal situation,"


Climate change has already affected both rainfall and snowfall patterns in Kashmir, the volatile state that lies between India and Pakistan, and is fiercely contested by both nuclear-armed nations. According to an Action Aid India report, "the once rich paddy growing fields in Kashmir are transforming into arid stretches resulting in a 40 percent drop in food production" — a deficit that could well reach 60 percent before 2020.

Western China

Increasing droughts and heat waves will worsen desertification and water scarcity in many parts of China. Western China, much of which is already desert, also happens to be home to the country's most volatile ethnic minorities, many of them Muslim Uighurs. The Xinjiang border province has 8.5 million Uighurs and, according to Der Spiegel, "is second only to Tibet as a source of trouble for Beijing."


With glacial retreat in the Himalayas endangering the clean water supply of one of the world's most densely populated areas, climate change is expected to hit the Indian subcontinent with particular severity. In Bangladesh especially, changes in the annual monsoon season, along with devastating sea-level rises and an increase in cyclones, could raise social tensions to a level that undermines an already unstable government

Southern Africa

Much of southern Africa is desperately poor and climate change conditions could push struggling states to collapse. This could create an untenable refugee situation, resulting in armed conflict as relocating peoples are oppressed, either by existing militaries or by xenophobic local populations. Food security in southern Africa is already an issue due to unprecedented droughts, which have forced countries to import massive amounts of food. 


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